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TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut **TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, and Western Passaic * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bronx, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern Nassau, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union * STORM INFORMATION: - About 770 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about 850 miles southwest of Montauk Point NY - 30.7N 80.1W - Storm Intensity 70 mph - Movement North or 360 degrees at 13 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Isaias, located off the north Florida coast, will continue to move to the north this morning, turning north-northeast this afternoon along the southeast coast. Isaias will continue moving northeast tonight over Eastern North Carolina. Isaias will slowly weaken as it accelerates northeast on Tuesday, likely moving over our area Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is still some timing and intensity uncertainty with this storm. However, confidence continues to increase with respect to the magnitude of local hazards and impacts. The main threats with this system involve heavy rainfall, strong winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding, along with high surf and dangerous rip currents. Locally heavy rain is expected with a widespread 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. The heaviest rain is most likely to occur across New York City, Northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening, and eastern sections Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The strongest winds are likely to occur across Long Island, southern Westchester and southern Connecticut, and the New York City and New Jersey Metro areas. Dangerous marine conditions are likely across all of the coastal waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected along the ocean beaches Monday through Wednesday. The effects from Tropical Storm Isaias are expected to diminish quickly from southwest to northeast across the area Tuesday night. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across northeast New Jersey, New York City, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * WIND: Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. * SURGE: Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across shoreline communities. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

The Do's and Don'ts of Prom Season

Spring is here and the school year is quickly winding down. Many students and teachers are already beginning the rigorous preparations for the regents. On a less academic front, high schools are also already planning ...

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Spring is here and the school year is quickly winding down. Many students and teachers are already beginning the rigorous preparations for the regents. On a less academic front, high schools are also already planning junior and senior proms, senior banquets and end of the year awards dinners.

Students are already planning pre and post prom parties and all the other social activities that have become associated with the senior prom experience. On some scales, the senior prom experience has become bigger than a wedding and overly costly.

The senior prom and/or the senior banquet was supposed to be that final social gathering with one's graduating class. It was an occasion where people came together to celebrate, remember, reminisce and have fun. Students dressed up formally, took pictures, had a great meal in the converted high school gym or local catering hall, danced and made fun of each other for the last time before graduation.

However, the intimacy of that folksy end of one's high school career has become an extravaganza that tends to have no limits or boundaries.

Today most senior proms are held in fancy banquet halls or hotel ballrooms. The attire is formal - black tie and evening gown get ups that cost a fortune even to rent.

Today's prom bids could cover the cost of a one-way ticket to Europe. How many $150 a plate dinners don't get eaten or even touched? Much of the finely prepared food is thrown out.

The pre-prom gatherings used to be for picture taking. Now in many circles they are sophisticated cocktail parties, allegedly without alcohol, but we all know that is often not totally true. Even if parents are adamant about an alcohol-free gathering, most students are pretty clever in finding a creative way around it.

The post-prom gathering used to be a late night/early morning breakfast at the local diner or a friend's house. Now it is a series of expensive adventures usually beginning with a comedy club or some kind of dance club. Then, depending on your geography, it ends with either a suite of rooms in Montauk, the Hamptons or New York City for the weekend. And of course, these high school coeds expect their weekend adventure to be without any responsible adult supervision.

The times, they are a changing! As parents, we need to slow down and remember that we are talking about high school seniors, not graduating college students. Most are chronologically between the ages of seventeen and nineteen. They may think and act like they are twenty-five, but they are not old enough to vote or be drafted.

As parents, we have an obligation to set some social parameters when it comes to prom time. It should not be one long, lost weekend. Teenagers are teenagers! They should have fun but within some reasonable boundaries. A sanctioned drunken orgy is not appropriate.

Unsupervised, reckless teenage behavior is dangerous for everyone. High school seniors need to be called to a higher standard. Prom bids, formal dress, limos, flowers and pictures are expensive. No high school senior should think the prom experience is an entitlement. Seniors should pay for this last hurrah or at least earn most of it as a gift. The money spent today on the prom experience is scandalous. So much of that money is a rip off. That is not to say that the prom experience should not be a classy, fancy grand finale event to four years of high school. However, if planned and executed differently, it could still be a glamorous evening that is a fun filled night to remember, but more cost effective.

Probably more disturbing than the expense is the attitude about prom season. It is the unwritten expectation on the part of most prom goers. They see the prom as an evening or weekend of endless partying without supervision where anything goes.

Unfortunately, a growing number of parents perpetuate this attitude by their silence and mindless compliance because they don't want to be in conflict with their kids. As parents, we need to take a clear and firm position on the "do's and don'ts" of prom season. I am not advocating a return to the dark ages or the Puritanism of the seventeen hundreds. However, I do believe there needs to be a middle ground.

What is the middle ground? Now that is the hard call for some parents. For me, it is not so hard. It is not real popular, but as far as I am concerned, as parents we don't have any other choices.

Clearly the prom weekend should be drug and alcohol free. Parents and school officials should take whatever steps necessary to insure that kind of environment. Inevitably, some students will try to get over on us, but few will try if they know that the consequences for non-compliance are serious and enforceable. They won't be happy, but for the most part, they will be compliant.

Supervision is another important but delicate variable in this prom experience equation. No supervision on our part is reckless and irresponsible. High school coeds in large numbers are going to take the path of least resistance and have fun at all costs, whatever that means. Thus, unsupervised weekends in Montauk, the Hamptons or Manhattan present serious difficulties.

In fairness to our seniors, parents should not wait until the final hour to talk to their prom goers about all prom arrangements. Parents should listen carefully and honestly to their children. Their expectations of their children should be very clear and enforceable. Ridiculous expectations that cannot be met will only damage what little credibility you have with your children.

The senior prom should be among one's most memorable events. It should not be a lost weekend, but an opportunity to celebrate, have fun and remember the great moments of one's high school career.