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*TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST* This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut ***TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST*** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Orange and Putnam - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Bronx, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northwestern Suffolk, Richmond (Staten Island), Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, Western Essex, and Western Union * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bronx, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northwestern Suffolk, Richmond (Staten Island), Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, Western Essex, and Western Union - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, and Western Passaic * STORM INFORMATION: - About 830 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about 900 miles south-southwest of Montauk Point NY - 29.7N 79.9W - Storm Intensity 70 mph - Movement North or 355 degrees at 9 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Isaias, located off the north Florida coast, will continue to move to the north this morning, turning north-northeast this afternoon along the southeast coast. Isaias will continue moving northeast tonight over Eastern North Carolina. Isaias will slowly weaken as it accelerates northeast on Tuesday, likely moving over our area Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is still some timing and intensity uncertainty with this storm. However, confidence continues to increase with respect to the magnitude of local hazards and impacts. The main threats with this system involve heavy rainfall, strong winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding, along with high surf and dangerous rip currents. Locally heavy rain is expected with a widespread 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. The heaviest rain is most likely to occur across New York City, Northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening, and eastern sections Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The strongest winds are likely to occur across Long Island, coastal Connecticut, and the New York City Metro. Dangerous marine conditions are likely across all of the coastal waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected along the ocean beaches Monday through Wednesday. The effects from Tropical Storm Isaias are expected to diminish quickly from southwest to northeast across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across northeastern New Jersey, New York City, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * WIND: Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. * SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across shoreline communities. Potential impacts in this area include: - There is potential for widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding across the Lower New York Harbor and South Shore Back Bays, with localized minor flooding impacts elsewhere. - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low lying spots. - Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Parents Cannot Take A Position of Social Toleration

Denial! That is a word that most of us don't like to hear when it is applied to our own parenting skills or the living of our own life. Too often when dealing with teenagers, ...

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Denial! That is a word that most of us don't like to hear when it is applied to our own parenting skills or the living of our own life. Too often when dealing with teenagers, we make excuses for their negative behavior. No parent wants to believe that their son or daughter is making poor choices that might potentially jeopardize his or her life.

However, the reality of life is that many of our children at different stages of their journey make reckless choices. For some it's just a phase they pass through. For others, it's not a phase, but rather a point in their life where they get stuck and can't get out. Some are drowning in poor decision making while we adults don't even see it.

The holiday season for all of us, young and old alike is a time for celebrating. For many of our high school and college students it is a time for catching up with old friends, celebrating with new friends and unfortunately making some decisions and social choices that could be lethal.

As parents, we do not want to believe that our children are at risk. Too often during the holiday season we turn a blind eye to their social choices. We want to believe that they will act responsibly and appropriately. Thus, we tend to be lax with our traditional guidelines for social behavior.

Unfortunately, today's teenage holiday season gatherings do not just involve a beer to toast the season, but rather they involve multiple drinks and at times other chemicals that are not healthy.

Twenty years ago the only teenagers who drank and smoked pot were those who lived on the fringe. Today, there is not a single group of high school and college students who do not drink socially and also from time to time experiment with other chemical substances. Too many parents want to believe their children are good students and/or athletes. They want to believe their children are involved in healthy extracurricular activities and that they are not involved in potentially dangerous social behavior.

So many of our good students believe that our social prohibitions around drinking and smoking pot are ridiculous. So often, students have said to me that if they do well in school and are respectful and responsible at home, "what's the big deal?" The same students have made the point that they believe their social behavior and social choices are their own business and their business alone.

The frustrating aspect about teenage social behavior is that we do not have universal agreement on how to hold our teenage and college students accountable and responsible. A good number of parents believe that as long as their children do well in school and act responsibly, social drinking and smoking are tolerable.

Some of those very parents believe that they cannot prevent their children from making those kinds of social choices. So, they've taken the position of toleration with the hope that it will be a brief phase of social development.

That kind of thinking makes it very difficult for parents who are trying to hold their high school and college age children more accountable to the law that presently exists. They also feel that if they turn their back and take the position of social toleration and something happens to their child or someone else's child, they would feel responsible.

Teenage socializing is definitely a challenge and at times a real problem. As parents, we cannot be silent or take the position of social indifference. However, if we take a position, we need to be prepared to enforce that position, even if it's difficult and uncomfortable.

What we don't realize is that many of our children are developing serious addiction problems while in high school. We might think it's just a phase or a period of social experimentation, but in fact unbeknownst to us as parents, it has become a serious problem. Too often in high school and in college, our children learn how to mask their problem. They become very sophisticated in hiding their symptoms and their social behavior.

As responsible parents, we need to continuously be on top of these concerns. Our children won't be happy. They will feel that we are being too overprotective, overbearing and downright intrusive. We need to be respectful, but we also need to communicate that we are concerned and that we realize no one is invincible.

AJ is seventeen and a senior in a local North Shore high school. When he was sixteen he started to drink socially. He was a good student, a good athlete and very popular in his class. The night of his junior prom, he came home totally inebriated. His parents dismissed the whole circumstance because it was prom night. The next week, they sat him down and spoke to him about their concerns relative to teenage drinking. He assured them that it was an isolated circumstance and that they should have no worries. Of course they wanted to believe him, and they did.

The summer between junior and senior was a real adventure. AJ really spread his wings. He partied every weekend, but made sure he never came home under the influence. When he drank too much, he made sure he stayed at a friend's house. So, most of the summer, his parents felt he was acting just like any teenage boy.

In addition to his drinking, AJ started to experiment with a wide range of street drugs. Since middle school, he had smoked pot on and off. In high school, he tried a few other drugs, but never used anything consistently. However, during his junior summer all of that changed. Some of his so-called friends introduced him to ecstasy, mushrooms, crack and cocaine. Cocaine became his drug of choice.

In the fall of his senior year, AJ got caught dealing pot in the halls of his high school. He was immediately suspended, pending an administrative hearing. Needless to say, his parents were devastated. AJ claimed it was the first time he dealt anything. The school administration contends he had been dealing all year long, but this was the first time he was caught. His parents continued to defend their son and minimize the seriousness of his behavior.

After the administrative hearing, school officials urged that AJ go for a drug and alcohol evaluation. Once that evaluation was completed, they would determine whether or not AJ could return to school.

A number of dates were set for the evaluation, but each time AJ cancelled them. The continued cancellations were seen by the school administration as a lack of cooperation. Since they were a private school, they decided to terminate his placement.

While deciding what to do since it was his senior year, AJ was arrested in the parking lot of a 7/11 store for possession with the intent to sell. The police told his parents that they had been watching him for six months and were concerned that he was becoming a leading drug dealer.

Again, AJ denied everything. His parents still did not want to believe that he had a problem. Finally after close family and friends suggested they take the blinders off, they were open to some recommendations to get their son help.

He was screened for a very successful, non-traditional, long-term treatment program. Their assessment indicated that AJ had a very serious substance abuse problem. They recommended that he immediately begin long-term residential care.

When his parents got these results, they immediately started to negotiate with the program administrators about the type of care and treatment their son needed. They have no knowledge, experience or training in the area of addiction, but because their son was resistant to long-term care, they were attempting to amend the program prescribed for him.

The program administrators made it very clear that if AJ were to begin treatment with them, it would be on their terms not his or his parents. When his mother continued to question the guidelines around visitation, phone calls and length of stay, the administrator told her rather candidly that this decision was about her son's life or death and that she should stop making excuses for his behavior and his need for long-term treatment. With great reluctance, his mother supported his beginning treatment.

Unfortunately, AJ's parents are still living with intense denial of the seriousness of their son's addiction problem. He's only just begun his treatment. Time will tell if he has the courage to do the work and complete the process. Hopefully, his parents won't sabotage the experience.