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TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut **TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, and Western Passaic * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bronx, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern Nassau, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union * STORM INFORMATION: - About 770 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about 850 miles southwest of Montauk Point NY - 30.7N 80.1W - Storm Intensity 70 mph - Movement North or 360 degrees at 13 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Isaias, located off the north Florida coast, will continue to move to the north this morning, turning north-northeast this afternoon along the southeast coast. Isaias will continue moving northeast tonight over Eastern North Carolina. Isaias will slowly weaken as it accelerates northeast on Tuesday, likely moving over our area Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is still some timing and intensity uncertainty with this storm. However, confidence continues to increase with respect to the magnitude of local hazards and impacts. The main threats with this system involve heavy rainfall, strong winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding, along with high surf and dangerous rip currents. Locally heavy rain is expected with a widespread 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. The heaviest rain is most likely to occur across New York City, Northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening, and eastern sections Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The strongest winds are likely to occur across Long Island, southern Westchester and southern Connecticut, and the New York City and New Jersey Metro areas. Dangerous marine conditions are likely across all of the coastal waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected along the ocean beaches Monday through Wednesday. The effects from Tropical Storm Isaias are expected to diminish quickly from southwest to northeast across the area Tuesday night. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across northeast New Jersey, New York City, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * WIND: Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. * SURGE: Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across shoreline communities. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Attitude is Everything

- or -
Why I Don't Understand the Whole "I Hate Radio" Thing

Attitude is everything. A lot of people say that. I'd like to prefix it with two more ...

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- or -

Why I Don't Understand the Whole "I Hate Radio" Thing

Attitude is everything. A lot of people say that. I'd like to prefix it with two more words: "A" and "good". Anyone can have an attitude, but not everyone has a



For example: how many songwriters do you know who complain about the radio? I'm not talking about the people who say, "I want to listen to


, and I can't get it out in Suffolk because the signal's too weak. " No, I'm talking about the writers and musicians who flip from station to station grumbling, "This is all crap. Radio sucks. It used to be good back in [insert appropriate year here], but now it's all crap. " Some artists and songwriters think it's chic to put down radio, but what does this kind of attitude really accomplish?

I don't want to get off on a

Dennis Miller

-type rant here, but my experience has been that when this happens, the 'radio' writers don't want to be near (much less work with) these 'artists' because they don't want to be put down. Rather than contributing to the songwriting community, this divides it. But think about it for a second: can you name a major artist or act who didn't have at least one radio hit, even if it wasn't penned by the band? When it comes to making a living as a songwriter, radio and record sales are king of the revenue hill. So why hamstring yourself by dissing radio? I don't get it. How else do you plan to sell records?

Which leads me to another example. I bought the Backstreet Boys release,


, and on several occasions other songwriters have seen the CD in my listening rack in the studio. One of them actually laughed and asked, "You bought that?" Of course I bought it! To date, it's sold over 11 million copies and has been on the

Billboard 200

for 59 weeks. How can I ignore that? Shouldn't I listen to the material that's currently at the top of the heap that I'm trying to climb?

I'm not saying that you should copy what you hear. On the contrary, I'm saying that if you watch the trends unfold in the markets that reflect your style, maybe you can predict where things will go. Then you can take advantage of new opportunities. Look at the Shania Twain/Faith Hill Effect (for lack of a better term). New Country and Top 40 were getting close enough in production style that someone saw the potential to shop the same material to both markets. Other songwriters and publishers soon followed suit, and now you can actually change radio stations in mid-song and hear a different artist covering the same song in a completely different genre. For a songwriter, what could be better than having the same song on two different charts?

Okay, forget trends. Forget predicting the wild animal of the entertainment business. How about just knowing where to shop your songs? I remember hearing a brand new country artist a few years back. I picked up her CD because I thought she'd be perfect for a song of mine. It didn't pan out for me, but just recently I heard a demo by another songwriter that also fit the artist, so I recommended her to the writer as a potential pitch. Will he get a cut on her next record? I hope so. If he does, then I can smile without reservation and know that I helped out a fellow writer in the community. I might even go to sleep that night thinking I almost have a clue about this business. But even if he doesn't get a cut, he appreciated the thought and he's now a contact who might return the favor to me at some point in the future.

Bottom line: listen to the radio. Read






Music Connection

(depending on what you can afford). Watch






, and/or


(when they're actually playing videos, that is). Pick the sources that give you the best information about what's happening in


style(s) of music. Let them be your

New York Times

and your

Wall Street Journal

. Watch and listen to what's happening. And for goodness sake, don't alienate other writers by putting down their style of music! It's hard enough to make it in this business -- don't handicap yourself with a negative attitude.