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*TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST* This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut ***TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST*** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Orange and Putnam - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Bronx, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northwestern Suffolk, Richmond (Staten Island), Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, Western Essex, and Western Union * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bronx, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northwestern Suffolk, Richmond (Staten Island), Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, Western Essex, and Western Union - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, and Western Passaic * STORM INFORMATION: - About 830 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about 900 miles south-southwest of Montauk Point NY - 29.7N 79.9W - Storm Intensity 70 mph - Movement North or 355 degrees at 9 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Isaias, located off the north Florida coast, will continue to move to the north this morning, turning north-northeast this afternoon along the southeast coast. Isaias will continue moving northeast tonight over Eastern North Carolina. Isaias will slowly weaken as it accelerates northeast on Tuesday, likely moving over our area Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is still some timing and intensity uncertainty with this storm. However, confidence continues to increase with respect to the magnitude of local hazards and impacts. The main threats with this system involve heavy rainfall, strong winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding, along with high surf and dangerous rip currents. Locally heavy rain is expected with a widespread 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. The heaviest rain is most likely to occur across New York City, Northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening, and eastern sections Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The strongest winds are likely to occur across Long Island, coastal Connecticut, and the New York City Metro. Dangerous marine conditions are likely across all of the coastal waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected along the ocean beaches Monday through Wednesday. The effects from Tropical Storm Isaias are expected to diminish quickly from southwest to northeast across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across northeastern New Jersey, New York City, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * WIND: Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. * SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across shoreline communities. Potential impacts in this area include: - There is potential for widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding across the Lower New York Harbor and South Shore Back Bays, with localized minor flooding impacts elsewhere. - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low lying spots. - Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

90 Years Ago April 6, 1917 US Entered WWI: And Then There Were Four

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Lest we forget...

And Then There Were Four

There were five. However, Charlotte Winters, 109, of Boonsboro, Md., the last female veteran of the war, died on Tuesday March 27, 2007. The four remaining are: Frank Buckles, 106, of Charles Town, W.Va.; Lloyd Brown, 105, of Charlotte Hall, Md.; Russell Coffey, 108, of North Baltimore, Ohio; and Harry Landis, 107, of Sun City Center, Fla.

About Those That Went Before Them

For us World War I was from April 6, 1917 until November 11, 1918. 36 Countries were involved in the fighting. 65 million Soldiers served. 4,734,991 of those were Americans (of which there are now four). 25,000 American Women served overseas. 53,402 Americans were killed in action. 63,114 Americans died of disease and other causes. 204,002 Americans suffered non-mortal wounds. One out of ever three French men aged 13-30 died. 3.5 million were Prisoners Of War by 1917.

About The War Itself

To quote a recent USA Today article, "The soldiers who went Over There thought they were fighting the 'war to end all wars.' It did not live up to its [billing]."

World War I actually lasted four years, from June 28, 1914 to November 11, 1918. It was also called the Great War. On one side were the "Allies" - France, Britain, Russia, and the U.S.; on the other were the "Central Powers" - Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Turkey.

On June 28, 1914, Archduke Francis Ferdinand, heir apparent to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and his wife, were shot and killed by a Serbian nationalist. This event, which came to be known as the "Shot heard 'round the world," the death of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, propelled Europe and its allies into the war.

On November 11, 1918, an armistice with Germany was signed in a railroad carriage at Compigne in France. At 11:00am on November 11, 1918 -- the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month -- a ceasefire came into effect. Canadian George Lawrence Price is traditionally regarded as the last soldier killed: he was shot by a German sniper and died at 10:58.

A formal state of war between the two sides persisted until signing of the Treaty of Versailles with Germany on June 28, 1919. Later treaties with Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria and The Ottoman Empire were signed. However, the latter treaty with the Ottoman Empire was followed by strife (the Turkish Independence War) and a final peace treaty was signed between the Allied Powers and the country that would shortly become the Republic of Turkey, at on July 24, 1923.

Some war memorials date the end of the war as being when the Versailles treaty was signed in 1919; most commemorations of the war's end concentrate on the armistice of November 11, 1918. Legally the last formal peace treaties were not signed until 1923. Some even treat the Versailles treaty as the prelude to World War II.

And A Few Facts About the Phrase "Shot Heard 'round the World"

"The shot heard 'round the world" is a well known phrase that has come to represent historical and popular incidents throughout world history.

In sports... in baseball, it is used for the Bobby Thomson's 1951 walk-off home run that clinched the National League pennant for the New York Giants. In golf, it was used most often to describe the 1935 par-5 double eagle 2 at the Masters Tournament by Gene Sarazen. In basketball it refers to Phoenix Suns player Garfield Heard's incredible shot before time ran out in Game 5 of the 1976 NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics to send the game to a third overtime. In American soccer, it is used to describe the goal scored by Paul Caligiuri for the USA men's national team against Trinidad and Tobago in Port of Spain in 1989. The win propelled the team to the 1990 FIFA World Cup, helping to start a resurgence of American soccer on the international scene.

More recently, the phrase was used by MSNBC, Newsweek, and many web sites in describing Dick Cheney's accidental shooting of Harry Whittington while quail hunting in Texas.

The phrase appears to originate from the opening stanza of Ralph Waldo Emerson's Concord Hymn (1837), and describes the impact of the battle at Old North Bridge in Concord, Massachusetts, on April 19, 1775. The entire stanza is:

-     By the rude bridge that arched the flood,
-     Their flag to April's breeze unfurled;
-     Here once the embattled farmers stood;
-     And fired the shot heard 'round the world.

The Shot Heard 'Round the World is also an indie rock band from Brooklyn, NY, whose members include a descendant of Emerson.

Finally, in an article in Mad Magazine there once appeared a caption:

"The rocket in the upper right contains several cows. It is the first herd shot 'round the world!"

Of course - What, me worry?

--- Regards, Walt Schmidt